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    NFL [[SUPER BOWL nº50]] Carolina Panthers - Denver Broncos

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    El evento deportivo del año en América. Super Bowl número 50. Primera SB del QB estrella de Carolina Cameron Newton. Último partido en la carrera del QB de Denver, leyenda ya de la NFL, Peyton Manning. El mejor equipo en ataque contra el mejor en defensa. La brillantez de Newton contra la experiencia de Manning. Choque de estilos en el Levi's Stadium de Santa Clara (CA).


    Domingo, 00:30h (SPA)

    Siempre he pensado que los americanos saben vender muy bien lo que quieren vender, y con la NFL acertaron de pleno. Supongo que ese toque "europeo" de jugar la final a partido único nos llama la atención a la mayoría. Normalmente, tanto la temporada regular como las finales en deportes americanos son partidos, partidos y más partidos. En baseball juegan una RS de ¡162 encuentros! En baloncesto 82... pero a medida que vas acortando la RS, la liga crece en emoción (e imprevisibilidad). En la NHL juegan 45 partidos, pero es que en la NFL juegan 16. Únicamente 16 encuentros. Y playoffs a partido único. Nadie se guarda nada, porque cada partido puede ser el último. ¡Aprende, Copa del Rey española!

    En esta edición han llegado a la gran final el campeón de la NFC, Carolina Panthers (15-1 en RS) y el campeón de la AFC, Denver Broncos (12-4). Todos aquellos que sigan un poco el fútbol americano sabrán que son equipos totalmente distintos, y a medida que observamos en profundidad las estadísticas durante la temporada, estas diferencias entre ambos, cada vez son más notorias. Y ésto es genial para los apostadores, ya que las cuotas (@1.45 Panthers @2.90 Broncos) reflejan tanto las victorias de ambos conjuntos como la cantidad de puntos anotados/recibidos. Sin embargo, ésto ya no es temporada regular. Aquí ya da igual ganar de 1 que de 21. Y, en ese sentido, se nos queda un análisis muy atractivo, ya que el underdog de esta Super Bowl está lleno de intangibles, y hay motivos más que suficientes como para dejar de lado el "Panthers ganarán" del que se lleva hablando toda la temporada, y darle vueltas a esas cuotas en busca de un "algo más".


    CAROLINA PANTHERS



    Es el mejor equipo de la competición, sin medias tintas. Sólo ha perdido 1 partido en toda la temporada para un balance de 17-1, y fue en casa de un equipo (Atlanta Falcons) que ni se ha clasificado para post-temporada, y al que 2 semanas antes habían ganado 38-0. Pero de esa derrota tenemos que quedarnos con un dato: 20-13. El único partido en el que Carolina bajó de 20 puntos.

    Los Panthers se basan por completo en el motrenco que tenemos en imagen: Cam Newton. 195 centímetros y 110 kilos distinguen a este Quarterback de 26 años de los demás. Es la evolución del QB moderno; un QB total que corre, pasa y ante el que necesitas una secundaria de excepción para poder tumbarlo. Cuando digo que los Panthers "se basan por completo" quiero decir que "dependen" de este hombre. Y en esa dependencia puede estar una de las claves del partido, tanto a favor como en contra. Si los defensive end de Denver (Wolfe y Jackson) trabajan tan bien juntos como lo han hecho hasta ahora, van a poner en aprietos a Newton y, por consiguiente, a Carolina.

    Comentaba que los dos finalistas eran equipos muy diferentes. El equipo de Ron Rivera, Carolina, ha acabado la temporada como el conjunto que más puntos ha conseguido (500). Esa proactividad en ataque se ha visto reafirmada en playoffs, donde los Panthers endosaron un 31-0 en el primer tiempo a los finalistas de la edición de 2015, Seattle Seahawks, para luego en anotar 49 ante Arizona, 2 puntos menos que el récord de anotación en unos playoffs (Buffalo con 51). Pero Carolina, aunque es un equipo dinámico, no sólo se basa en ataque. Se caracterizan también por las recuperaciones. Los LB (linebackers) Kuechly y Thomas Davis combinan 8 intercepciones en RS, mientras que el safety Coleman contabilizó 7 en temporada regular, combinando 4 entre los 3 en PO. Mención a parte merece el DT (defensive tackle) Kawann Short, uno de los encargados de incomodar al QB Peyton Manning, con nada más y nada menos que 11 sacks en RS y 2 en PO.

    DENVER BRONCOS


    Y es en ese punto donde entran en divergencia los estilos de ambos equipos. Denver Broncos es el conjunto que menos yardas ha concedido defensivamente de toda la competición, pero Carolina también destaca por sus recuperaciones, y en los números de sus principales piezas defensivas vemos que no sólo es un equipo puramente de ataque. Entonces, ¿qué tiene que hacer Denver para batir a Carolina?

    Hay una serie de factores que podrían propiciar que Denver llevase el partido a su terreno. Primeramente, decir que Denver es el equipo "con más solera" de los dos finalistas. Han llegado a 8 Super Bowls por sólo 2 de Carolina (la anterior fue en 2004, derrota ante New England). Dentro de todas esas finales de los Broncos, la más reciente la tenemos hace apenas 2 años, cuando en 2014 cayeron calamitosamente ante Seattle por 43-8. Pero, aunque sólo haga 2 años, el equipo ha cambiado mucho, tanto los jugadores como el estilo. Gary Kubiak ha conformado un equipo con un carácter más defensivo que aquellos Broncos que sucumbieron ante Sherman, Lynch, Wilson y compañía, saliendo de favoritos en la final. Sí, el resultado fue de 43-8 y la línea de apuestas era Denver -2. No sólo en la NFL ha pasado, pasa en muchos deportes que un equipo que juega fútbol ofensivo, cuando pierde de forma contundente en un gran evento, se torna más conservador y precavido.

    Es obvio, pero también es lógico pensarlo: Denver debe controlar a Cam Newton. Ya he comentado la importancia de la pareja Jackson -Wolfe, ¿pero qué hay de los LB? DeMarcus Ware y Von Miller combinan 18 sacks en RS (junto a los 10 de Jackson - Wolfe). El peso en importancia de los grandes jugadores defensivos de Denver hace que no necesiten hacer tantas intercepciones en pases como Carolina (24-14 para los Panthers) pero sigan siendo un equipo excelso en defensa, debido a la fuerte presión que ejercen al QB rival y a su creación de juego. Por ello, creo que una de las labores de Kubiak es intentar destruir el juego de Carolina, jugar con el time-clock y esperar alguna genialidad de Manning culminada por un Emmanuel Sanders o un Demaryius Thomas (wide receivers).

    Es en en ese juego de marcadores cortos y fuertes defensas, en "ese otro football" donde entran en juego una serie de factores intangibles que hacen que Denver tenga mucho que decir en esta final si pueden minimizar las virtudes de Cam Newton. Es la primera final para el QB de los Panthers y, en general, es un equipo con poca experiencia en este tipo de eventos. Sólo 7 jugadores de Carolina tienen experiencia en Super Bowls, mientras son 18 los hombres de Denver que ya se han visto envueltos en situaciones similares (4 para Manning). Las finales con dos equipos con un estilo de juego tan marcado suelen acabar siempre de la misma forma: gana el equipo que mejor defiende. El choque de 2014 entre Seattle y Denver enfrentaba al mejor equipo en defensa contra el mejor en ataque, y el resultado fue contundente. Si a eso le sumamos que 4 de las últimas 5 Super Bowls se han decidido en la última jugada del partido, tenemos que es justamente el escenario que creo que Denver quiere, y en el que van a poder tener más ventaja ante un rival de este estilo.

    MANNING vs NEWTON



    A parte de ser la SB nº50, hay un aire especial en este evento. Es el último partido de Peyton Manning. El ex QB de los Colts, ya con 39 años, superará al propietario de su equipo (John Elway) como el QB más veterano en jugar una SB. Será la última hora de genialidad del jugador de New Orleans en una temporada marcada por las lesiones, cuando fue únicamente en 2011 el único año que Manning se perdió algún partido de RS, militando aún en las filas de los Colts. Y enfrente Cam Newton.

    Probablemente sea la mayor diferencia de edad entre dos QB en una SuperBowl (13 años). Sólo se han enfrentado una vez, cuando Newton tenía 22 años, y fue Manning el que venció aquél encuentro de 2012 (36-14). Antes comentaba el 31-0 a Seahawks en la primera parte. En la segunda el resultado fue de 0-24 para Seattle para un 31-24 final. Se notó cierto nerviosismo en Carolina, y el saber estar y la experiencia de Seattle a punto estuvo de propiciar una de las mayores remontadas de la historia de los playoffs. Por ello, uno sabe seguro qué puede esperar de estos Broncos, y atendiendo a la RS y parte de los PO, creemos saber lo que nos deparará Carolina. ¿O no?

    En la mayoría de opiniones no subjetivas sobre el encuentro, se coincide en que se espera un partido muy ajustado. Ahí Denver va 10-3 en partidos decididos por 7 o menos puntos. ¿Sabrá desenvolverse Carolina en un escenario nuevo para ellos? El handicap propuesto es el clásico en una SB donde se espera que la puntuación del encuentro no sea demasiado alta, con la línea de puntos en 44. Por suerte para los apostantes, la SB es un evento en el que se puede apostar a lo que sea. Las casas de apuestas nos abren más de 300 mercados a los que apostar, y ya sea para ver el partido de forma relajada como para intentar ganar algo de dinero de forma seria, es un terreno propicio para ello.

    ¿Conseguirá defender Denver a Newton? ¿Optarán por el hombre a hombre? En ese caso, ¿qué harán contra su juego de carreras? ¿Jugará éste como lo ha hecho durante toda la RS o le podrá la presión? ¿Logrará Denver mantener un marcador bajo para tener alguna opción de partido?
    Editado por The Horse Whisper, 07/02/16 a las 03:10 PM
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    Re: NFL [[SUPER BOWL nº50]] Carolina Panthers - Denver Broncos

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    Tras mucho meditarlo, pese a ser partidario de la sorpresa, de que la defensa de Denver podría anular a Cam Newton, creo que finalmente voy a ir con la lógica que se ha ido dando durante toda la temporada. El ataque de Denver ha sido malo, con Demaryius Thomas y Emmanuel Sanders siendo muy irregulares. Hablaba en la previa sobre la defensa de Broncos, que iba a plantear un partido muy duro para poder parar a la ofensiva de los Panthers. El problema, es que Carolina también tiene una defensa durísima, con un Kawann Short imperial en el DT, pudiendo tanto defender juego de pase como de carrera.

    Todas las "estadísticas" de partidos ajustados favorecían a Denver. ¿Será ajustado realmente el encuentro? La mayoría de SB lo han sido, aunque no las que ha vivido Peytong Manning, donde las 3 se han decidido por 14 o más puntos de diferencia, tanto la que ganó como las que 2 que perdió. Es posible que Denver pueda contener a Carolina antes de llegar a la red-zone, pero es que ahí los Panthers tienen una efectividad altísima de conversión (21/25), y ahí es donde cobra importancia Cam Newton y la imposibilidad de defender su juego por parte de Denver.

    Carolina ha hecho, al menos, 100 yardas de carrera en todos sus partidos desde hace 1 año y medio, y han ganado todos los encuentros en los que iban por delante en el marcador al descanso.

    Quizá, personalmente, prefiero la sorpresa, por darle el último gusto a Manning, por tener un partido entretenido, pero cada vez voy alejándome más del +7 de Denver y acercándome más al -7 de Carolina.

    Mis apuestas:

    Sacramento da auténtica lástima defensivamente encajando 29 triples combinados entre Chicago (11) y Brooklyn (18) permitiendo a los Nets hacer 103 puntos en los primeros 3 cuartos. Boston está en buena racha, lleva 7 seguidos en casa ante Sacramento y está alcanzando en 14 de los 15 últimos encuentros los 100 puntos.

    Carolina HT/FT @1.90 bet365
    Carolina over2.5 touchdowns @1.61 bet365
    Carolina & Boston Celtics to win @1.92 Sportium
    Visita mi Escuela de trading deportivo en:
    http://www.lucagarzelitrading.com

    Sigue como herramienta de apoyo mi canal de Youtube dedicado a las apuestas deportivas, trading y poker:
    https://www.youtube.com/user/LucaGarzeli

  4. Agradecimientos Josepat, Driu, Barril Brent ha(n) agradecido este post
    Total: 3 Agradecimientos
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    Re: NFL [[SUPER BOWL nº50]] Carolina Panthers - Denver Broncos

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        [97] => ~(casinobarcelona)(?![^<]*(|" />|width="\d+"|target="_blank"|||||width='\d+'|follow">|rel="thickbox">|onclick="[\w .()]+"))~i
        [98] => ~(Retabet)(?![^<]*(|" />|width="\d+"|target="_blank"|||||width='\d+'|follow">|rel="thickbox">|onclick="[\w .()]+"))~i
        [99] => ~(Casino Gran Madrid)(?![^<]*(|" />|width="\d+"|target="_blank"|||||width='\d+'|follow">|rel="thickbox">|onclick="[\w .()]+"))~i
        [100] => ~(casinogranmadridonline)(?![^<]*(|" />|width="\d+"|target="_blank"|||||width='\d+'|follow">|rel="thickbox">|onclick="[\w .()]+"))~i
        [101] => ~(Merkur)(?![^<]*(|" />|width="\d+"|target="_blank"|||||width='\d+'|follow">|rel="thickbox">|onclick="[\w .()]+"))~i
    )
    
    
    

    ||||bop_replace_array=> Array ( [0] => $1 [1] => $1 [2] => $1 [3] => $1 [4] => $1 [5] => $1 [6] => $1 [7] => $1 [8] => $1 [9] => $1 [10] => $1 [11] => $1 [12] => $1 [13] => $1 [14] => $1 [15] => $1 [16] => $1 [17] => $1 [18] => $1 [19] => $1 [20] => $1 [21] => $1 [22] => $1 [23] => $1 [24] => $1 [25] => $1 [26] => $1 [27] => $1 [28] => $1 [29] => $1 [30] => $1 [31] => $1 [32] => $1 [33] => $1 [34] => $1 [35] => $1 [36] => $1 [37] => $1 [38] => $1 [39] => $1 [40] => $1 [41] => $1 [42] => $1 [43] => $1 [44] => $1 [45] => $1 [46] => $1 [47] => $1 [48] => $1 [49] => $1 [50] => $1 [51] => $1 [52] => $1 [53] => $1 [54] => $1 [55] => $1 [56] => $1 [57] => $1 [58] => $1 [59] => $1 [60] => $1 [61] => $1 [62] => $1 [63] => $1 [64] => $1 [65] => $1 [66] => $1 [67] => $1 [68] => $1 [69] => $1 [70] => $1 [71] => $1 [72] => $1 [73] => $1 [74] => $1 [75] => $1 [76] => $1 [77] => $1 [78] => $1 [79] => $1 [80] => $1 [81] => $1 [82] => $1 [83] => $1 [84] => $1 [85] => $1 [86] => $1 [87] => $1 [88] => $1 [89] => $1 [90] => $1 [91] => $1 [92] => $1 [93] => $1 [94] => $1 [95] => $1 [96] => $1 [97] => $1 [98] => $1 [99] => $1 [100] => $1 [101] => $1 )
    Me lo he leido entero y por tu primer post estaba pensando en entrar al +5 pero luego poco a poco he ido pensando que Denver es mucho Denver y vistos los resultados anteriores creo que saldrán en tromba a adelantarse en el marcador.

    No sigo nada la NFL pero simplemente felicitarte por el post, el curradón y por la entrega.

  6. Agradecimientos Josepat, The Horse Whisper ha(n) agradecido este post
    Total: 2 Agradecimientos
  7. #4

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    Re: NFL [[SUPER BOWL nº50]] Carolina Panthers - Denver Broncos

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        [101] => ~(Merkur)(?![^<]*(|" />|width="\d+"|target="_blank"|||||width='\d+'|follow">|rel="thickbox">|onclick="[\w .()]+"))~i
    )
    
    
    

    ||||bop_replace_array=> Array ( [0] => $1 [1] => $1 [2] => $1 [3] => $1 [4] => $1 [5] => $1 [6] => $1 [7] => $1 [8] => $1 [9] => $1 [10] => $1 [11] => $1 [12] => $1 [13] => $1 [14] => $1 [15] => $1 [16] => $1 [17] => $1 [18] => $1 [19] => $1 [20] => $1 [21] => $1 [22] => $1 [23] => $1 [24] => $1 [25] => $1 [26] => $1 [27] => $1 [28] => $1 [29] => $1 [30] => $1 [31] => $1 [32] => $1 [33] => $1 [34] => $1 [35] => $1 [36] => $1 [37] => $1 [38] => $1 [39] => $1 [40] => $1 [41] => $1 [42] => $1 [43] => $1 [44] => $1 [45] => $1 [46] => $1 [47] => $1 [48] => $1 [49] => $1 [50] => $1 [51] => $1 [52] => $1 [53] => $1 [54] => $1 [55] => $1 [56] => $1 [57] => $1 [58] => $1 [59] => $1 [60] => $1 [61] => $1 [62] => $1 [63] => $1 [64] => $1 [65] => $1 [66] => $1 [67] => $1 [68] => $1 [69] => $1 [70] => $1 [71] => $1 [72] => $1 [73] => $1 [74] => $1 [75] => $1 [76] => $1 [77] => $1 [78] => $1 [79] => $1 [80] => $1 [81] => $1 [82] => $1 [83] => $1 [84] => $1 [85] => $1 [86] => $1 [87] => $1 [88] => $1 [89] => $1 [90] => $1 [91] => $1 [92] => $1 [93] => $1 [94] => $1 [95] => $1 [96] => $1 [97] => $1 [98] => $1 [99] => $1 [100] => $1 [101] => $1 )
    @Barril Brent Yo, si te soy sincero, en mi cabeza estaba el +7, por todas las stats de que se deciden las finales por 1 jugada, de que Denver va 10-3 en partidos decididos por 7 o menos puntos y demás. Pero leyendo a la gente, lo tienen clarísimo prácticamente todos. Los datos de Carolina son muy bestias, prácticamente siempre que llegan a la red zone anotan (80% de las veces) y eso teniendo a un QB que puede hacer prácticamente de todo, tanto correr, pasar (mide 1.95 ve a vista de pájaro todo lo que pasa en el campo) hace que me decante por los favoritos.

    Luego podemos hablar de que en la mayoría de las SB los mejores equipos ofensivos siempre sucumben ante el mejor equipo en defensa, pero es que los Panthers también tienen jugadores muy duros en defensa, y el ataque de Denver es un poco meh.

    Así que, nada, yo simpatizo con el crack que es Peyton Manning, pero hoy la apuesta va para Newton.
    Visita mi Escuela de trading deportivo en:
    http://www.lucagarzelitrading.com

    Sigue como herramienta de apoyo mi canal de Youtube dedicado a las apuestas deportivas, trading y poker:
    https://www.youtube.com/user/LucaGarzeli

  8. Agradecimientos Josepat, Barril Brent ha(n) agradecido este post
    Total: 2 Agradecimientos
  9. #5

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    Re: NFL [[SUPER BOWL nº50]] Carolina Panthers - Denver Broncos

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    )
    
    
    

    ||||bop_replace_array=> Array ( [0] => $1 [1] => $1 [2] => $1 [3] => $1 [4] => $1 [5] => $1 [6] => $1 [7] => $1 [8] => $1 [9] => $1 [10] => $1 [11] => $1 [12] => $1 [13] => $1 [14] => $1 [15] => $1 [16] => $1 [17] => $1 [18] => $1 [19] => $1 [20] => $1 [21] => $1 [22] => $1 [23] => $1 [24] => $1 [25] => $1 [26] => $1 [27] => $1 [28] => $1 [29] => $1 [30] => $1 [31] => $1 [32] => $1 [33] => $1 [34] => $1 [35] => $1 [36] => $1 [37] => $1 [38] => $1 [39] => $1 [40] => $1 [41] => $1 [42] => $1 [43] => $1 [44] => $1 [45] => $1 [46] => $1 [47] => $1 [48] => $1 [49] => $1 [50] => $1 [51] => $1 [52] => $1 [53] => $1 [54] => $1 [55] => $1 [56] => $1 [57] => $1 [58] => $1 [59] => $1 [60] => $1 [61] => $1 [62] => $1 [63] => $1 [64] => $1 [65] => $1 [66] => $1 [67] => $1 [68] => $1 [69] => $1 [70] => $1 [71] => $1 [72] => $1 [73] => $1 [74] => $1 [75] => $1 [76] => $1 [77] => $1 [78] => $1 [79] => $1 [80] => $1 [81] => $1 [82] => $1 [83] => $1 [84] => $1 [85] => $1 [86] => $1 [87] => $1 [88] => $1 [89] => $1 [90] => $1 [91] => $1 [92] => $1 [93] => $1 [94] => $1 [95] => $1 [96] => $1 [97] => $1 [98] => $1 [99] => $1 [100] => $1 [101] => $1 )
    Llevo 8 años apostando y, una vez más, cambiar pronósticos en el último momento trae el mismo resultado que siempre.

    Evidentemente, es mucho más sencillo cambiarlo a hacer un no bet después de haberlo analizado tanto.

    El jueves cuando hice el primer análisis estaba en lo cierto, y la defensa de Denver ha pasado por encima de Carolina.
    Visita mi Escuela de trading deportivo en:
    http://www.lucagarzelitrading.com

    Sigue como herramienta de apoyo mi canal de Youtube dedicado a las apuestas deportivas, trading y poker:
    https://www.youtube.com/user/LucaGarzeli

  10. Agradecimientos Josepat, Barril Brent ha(n) agradecido este post
    Total: 2 Agradecimientos
  11. #6

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    Re: NFL [[SUPER BOWL nº50]] Carolina Panthers - Denver Broncos

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        [9] => ~(1xbet Mexico)(?![^<]*(|" />|width="\d+"|target="_blank"|||||width='\d+'|follow">|rel="thickbox">|onclick="[\w .()]+"))~i
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        [23] => ~(registrate en 888sport)(?![^<]*(|" />|width="\d+"|target="_blank"|||||width='\d+'|follow">|rel="thickbox">|onclick="[\w .()]+"))~i
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        [39] => ~(Bet365\.)(?![^<]*(|" />|width="\d+"|target="_blank"|||||width='\d+'|follow">|rel="thickbox">|onclick="[\w .()]+"))~i
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        [48] => ~(ACB)(?![^<]*(|" />|width="\d+"|target="_blank"|||||width='\d+'|follow">|rel="thickbox">|onclick="[\w .()]+"))~i
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    )
    
    
    

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    Citar Originalmente publicado por The Horse Whisper Ver post

    Es en en ese juego de marcadores cortos y fuertes defensas, en "ese otro football" donde entran en juego una serie de factores intangibles que hacen que Denver tenga mucho que decir en esta final si pueden minimizar las virtudes de Cam Newton. Es la primera final para el QB de los Panthers y, en general, es un equipo con poca experiencia en este tipo de eventos. Sólo 7 jugadores de Carolina tienen experiencia en Super Bowls, mientras son 18 los hombres de Denver que ya se han visto envueltos en situaciones similares (4 para Manning). Las finales con dos equipos con un estilo de juego tan marcado suelen acabar siempre de la misma forma: gana el equipo que mejor defiende. El choque de 2014 entre Seattle y Denver enfrentaba al mejor equipo en defensa contra el mejor en ataque, y el resultado fue contundente. Si a eso le sumamos que 4 de las últimas 5 Super Bowls se han decidido en la última jugada del partido, tenemos que es justamente el escenario que creo que Denver quiere, y en el que van a poder tener más ventaja ante un rival de este estilo.

    Cuanto me he acordado de ti esta mañana @The Horse Whisper y es que cuando lei tu primer post me quede con todo lo que contabas pero en particular con este parrafo donde fuiste realmente objetivo y contundente. Y es por eso que pense que acabarias entrando con Denver incluso a ese @2.90 directamente. Sin embargo al leer tu segundo post yo tambien acabe medio convencido de que Carolina era el caballo ganador.

    Una vez mas se demuestra que nuestras primeras impresiones muchas veces son las que hemos de seguir y dejarnos de intentar convencernos de hacer lo contrario.

    Yo no entré a nada al final porque es un deporte que desconozco pero simplemente quiero aplaudir tus post, sobretodo el primero que cualquier persona que se lo haya leido y se haya atrevido habria entrado con Denver y con argumentos de mucho peso a su favor.

    La frase en negrita es una sentencia de muerte a Carolina y justamente ha sido asi.

    Gracias por tu tiempo crack!

  12. Agradecimientos Josepat, The Horse Whisper, Driu ha(n) agradecido este post
    Total: 3 Agradecimientos

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